Category: Politics

Angola’s Hidden Succession Crisis

The election that may decide Angola’s future is not the general election scheduled for 2027. It may be the internal election of the ruling MPLA, at the party congress in December 2026. In Angola, the head of the national list of the party that wins the general election becomes president. The MPLA has governed since independence; its internal choices often become state decisions. Yet President João Lourenço is constitutionally barred from seeking a third presidential term in 2027. A serious ruling party would already be debating its next candidate, program, team and transition. Instead, Angola is being asked to stare into a fog. Lourenço wants to remain MPLA president. What he has not done is name a successor, organize a credible transition or open a real contest over the future of the party and the country. The silence is the message. It keeps the party dependent on his timetable, his […]

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Tax Bill Risks Turning Every Citizen into a Suspect

Reading some of Angola’s recent legislation can leave one wondering whether the problem lies with the reader, the drafter or a lawmaker legislating for a country that exists only on paper. Article 45(2) of the proposed Personal Income Tax Code, known by its Portuguese acronym IRPS, states: “Financial institutions must also submit to the Tax Administration, by January 31 and through the electronic transmission of data, information concerning receipts credited to clients during the previous financial year.” The language may sound merely bureaucratic. Its implications are anything but. The provision would require banks to report every amount received on behalf of every client during the previous year. In effect, every sum entering a depositor’s account would be transmitted to the tax authorities — even a small gift from a grandmother to pay for biscuits. This is a striking example of how lawmakers, whether under pressure from international institutions or driven […]

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Isaac dos Anjos Is Undermining Angola’s Credibility

Angola’s minister of agriculture, Isaac dos Anjos, deserves a peculiar kind of congratulations. By speaking so bluntly, he has done the country a public service: he has stripped away the pretence and exposed the national self-sabotage in which parts of Angola’s ruling elite still indulge. The masks fall. The choice becomes clear. On one side stand those who want a modern, prosperous Angola with a free and credible economy. On the other stand those who prefer the familiar fog of an oligarchic, clientelist and closed development model, condemned to delay because it cannot survive transparency. Dos Anjos’s recent public rebuke of the African Development Bank and the International Finance Corporation was not a diplomatic slip. It was a worldview made audible: the belief that Angola belongs, by historical right, to those who took power in war and kept it in peace, and that any external rule limiting their room for […]

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Angola Needs a New Constitution — Now

Angola’s constitutional order is not merely dysfunctional but economically distortionary. Since taking office in 2017, President João Lourenço has authorized an estimated $61.5 billion in public spending by presidential decree, without open tender or transparent contracting, frequently benefiting private interests linked to his inner circle. This is not an aberration. It is the predictable outcome of a constitutional design that concentrates executive power while neutralizing oversight. In Angola, the presidency is not anchored in a direct popular mandate but in party hierarchy, and its authority operates with incipient institutional restraint. The result is a system where political power and economic allocation are tightly fused. It undermines market confidence, distorts competition, and erodes the legal certainty on which long-term investment depends. If Portugal adopted Angola’s presidential model, the current president would not be António José Seguro. It would be Joaquim Miranda Sarmento, the top candidate of the most voted party in […]

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Between Succession and Collapse: Angola at the End of Lourenço’s Rule

Before asking who will succeed João Lourenço, a more uncomfortable question looms: what kind of country will he leave behind at the end of his final term? The issue is not merely one of political succession, but of structural inheritance. Over a decade in power, what has taken shape is not a reformist project, but the deepening of a system built on revanchism, state capture, and misgovernance. As Angola approaches a decade under João Lourenço, it has not emerged as a stronger or more just state—it has grown more centralized, more opaque, and more exposed to the whims of unchecked presidential power. The case of General Higino Carneiro illustrates the pattern. Cleared by the Supreme Court of corruption charges, he re-emerged in the political arena—only to face new accusations as he positioned himself as a contender for the leadership of the MPLA. This sequence suggests not a consistent system of […]

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Angola’s U$61.5 Billion Contracts by Presidential Decree. No Public Tender

In Angola, major public spending decisions are often not announced in televised addresses or debated on the floor of Parliament. They appear instead in the Diário da República — formal presidential decrees, written in technical language, authorizing contracts that can reshape entire sectors of the economy. Between 2017 and today, at least US$61.5 billion has been approved through one such mechanism: simplified procurement. That figure emerges from a review of 476 presidential decrees, drawn from more than 500 examined during President João Lourenço’s two terms in office. It is not a complete accounting of all direct awards issued over eight years. It is a documented sample. Yet even as a partial record, it reveals the scale at which executive discretion has operated. Of the 476 decrees analyzed, beneficiaries could be identified in 273 cases. In the remaining 203 — representing 42.6 percent — no beneficiary is publicly named. Those unidentified […]

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When Economic Power Becomes Systemic Risk in Angola

Angola’s diversification strategy was designed to reduce dependence on oil and build a competitive, broad-based economy. Instead, a growing body of public records suggests that economic power is becoming increasingly concentrated around a small number of politically connected conglomerates. At the center of this transformation stands the Carrinho Group. Over the past four years, the group has expanded from agro-industry into food importation, military logistics and banking, underwritten by presidential decrees, sovereign guarantees and state-backed financing. The Strategic Food Reserve: Over Half a Billion Dollars Mobilized The Strategic Food Reserve (Reserva Estratégica Alimentar — REA) was launched in 2021 as a national price stabilization and food security mechanism. In its first operational year alone, the Angolan state invested more than $200 million in the program, according to official reporting by the state-owned Rádio Nacional de Angola. Between late 2021 and 2022, President João Lourenço authorized four additional supplementary credit lines […]

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How Angola Is Using the Law to Manage Hunger and Dissent

Faced with hunger and economic decline, Angola’s government is turning to law as a tool of control — building a quiet architecture of authoritarianism. Authoritarianism rarely arrives with tanks in the streets. More often, it slips in through legal texts, regulatory agencies, and administrative procedures that appear technical, neutral, even modern. Angola is now offering a textbook example of how this happens. When President João Lourenço came to power, he invoked the legacy of Deng Xiaoping, the Chinese leader who argued that political legitimacy rests on a simple foundation: putting food on people’s tables. Economic growth, Deng believed, would do what ideology could not. Angola has followed the opposite path. Living conditions have deteriorated, hunger has spread, and economic opportunity has narrowed. Popular frustration today is not abstract or ideological — it is visceral. It is about food, jobs, and dignity. Instead of addressing these realities, the Angolan government has […]

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Cybersecurity: Angola’s Latest Tool of Authoritarian Consolidation

Angola’s proposed cybersecurity law, presented as a modern response to digital threats, instead deepens the country’s authoritarian drift by centralising state power, weakening judicial oversight and expanding surveillance across the entire digital sphere—posing a direct threat to the already fragile constitutional guarantees that remain in place. Angola has yet to experience a real democratic movement at all. What exists instead is a formal democratic Constitution that permits to entrench an increasingly authoritarian system of power, sustained by the absence of real political democratic alternation, weakened institutions and a systematically shrinking civic space. This system is usually referred to as an anocracy, combining elements typical of democracies with dictatorial practices. These systems are inherently unstable and prone to arbitrariness. Within this context, the proposed cybersecurity legislation must be read not as neutral regulation but as an instrument of authoritarian consolidation. It forms part of a broader legislative package designed to expand […]

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Angola: When the State Needs Terrorists, It Creates Them

The Public Prosecutor confirmed the taxi strike involved no crime, no violence and no terrorism — yet the court insisted on a fabricated “state of terror.” The real danger was not in the streets, but in a judiciary willing to turn protest into national security fiction. The Office of the Attorney General of the Republic (PGR) has formally confirmed in writing that the alleged “terrorist conspiracy” connected to the Luanda taxi strike of 28–30 July 2025 never existed. There was no incitement, no violence, no material damage and no criminal plan orchestrated by the leaders of the taxi associations and cooperatives that called the strike. The accusation collapsed entirely, leading to the immediate release of those who had been detained. What had been presented as a national security threat was, in reality, a case of preventive repression and the political manipulation of criminal law.  On 12 December 2025, Public Prosecutor […]

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